Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Grêmio are heavy favourites at 1.5, an implied probability of around 67%, showing the market expects a home-tilted contest.
Chapecoense are long outsiders at 7.0, priced at roughly a 14% chance to win outright.
The draw at 4.38 implies about 23%, sitting between the two match-result outcomes but well behind Grêmio.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 shows near-even 48% confidence, but its -3.98% edge means it fails to clear our value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 9.31 |
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.92 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.08 |
| 3-0 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.97 and 0.92. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Grêmio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GRÊ | X | 2 · CHA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.09 | 6.32 |
| Matchbook | 1.54 | 4.10 | 6.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.54 | 4.25 | 6.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.20 | 6.05 |
| GTbets | 1.51 | 4.15 | 6.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Grêmio host Chapecoense in this Brasileirão fixture as clear market favourites, priced at 1.5 with 1xBet. That short number translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 67% for the home side, underlining how strongly bookmakers lean toward Grêmio here. Chapecoense sit at the other end of the spectrum at 7.0 with Coolbet, implying only about a 14% chance, while the draw is offered at 4.38, worth close to 23% in probability terms. Rather than backing the lopsided match result, our model points toward the Under 2.5 goals market at 2.02 with 1xBet, reflecting a fairly even 48% market-implied confidence for a lower-scoring outcome. It is worth noting that this selection carries a negative value edge of about -3.98%, so it does not clear our value threshold. In short, the odds frame a Grêmio-dominated contest, with the total-goals angle offering the more balanced pricing.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 2.5 goals at 2.02, an almost coin-flip market at 48% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of about -3.98% means it does not qualify as a value pick. Treat this as a marginal, higher-risk angle rather than a strong recommendation, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Grêmio are the clear favourites at 1.5 with 1xBet, an implied probability of around 67%. Chapecoense are the outsiders at 7.0.
The draw is priced at 4.38 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 23% chance of the game ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The model's Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.02 carries a negative edge of about -3.98%, so no value bet is highlighted here.
Grêmio vs Chapecoense takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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