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አማርኛ ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sun · 14:00
Our tip
Over 2.0 goals
Odds
1.78
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 47%
AI Value edge 9.86% · best price at Coolbet
Bet at Coolbet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atletico Paranaense are favourites at 2.35 (around 43% implied), ahead of Fluminense at 3.33 (around 30%).
02
The draw is competitively priced at 3.20, implying roughly 31% and reflecting a fairly balanced market.
03
Our recommended bet is Atletico Paranaense to win, carrying a value edge of about 3.95% at 44% model confidence.
04
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, so the edge here is slim rather than strong.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 42%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.2% | 6.57 |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 0-0 | 11.4% | 8.79 |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | 9.81 |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 0.83. These six scorelines cover 68% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AP Atletico Paranaense DWDWW
15 Aug 26 vs Bragantino 1-1
9 Aug 26 @ Santos 2-0
30 Jul 26 @ Corinthians 0-0
25 Jul 26 vs Internacional 2-0
23 Jul 26 @ São Paulo 2-1
FLU Fluminense WWDDD
22 Aug 26 vs Clube do Remo 2-1
15 Aug 26 vs Palmeiras 3-2
9 Aug 26 @ Botafogo 1-1
30 Jul 26 vs Bahia 0-0
26 Jul 26 @ Grêmio 1-1
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense
L 15 Mar 26
Fluminense 3-2 ParanaenseBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · AP | X | 2 · FLU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.19 | 3.40 |
| Coolbet | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| GTbets | 2.26 | 3.14 | 3.35 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.24 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.14 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.14 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense: match preview
This Brasileirão clash sees Atletico Paranaense host Fluminense, and the market has a clear preference. Atletico Paranaense are priced at 2.35 with Coolbet, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 43%, marking them as the favourites here. Fluminense are the outsiders at 3.33 with 1xBet, or about 30% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.20 with Coolbet, implying close to 31%. Those numbers point to a genuinely open contest rather than a one-sided affair, with the gap between home win and away win narrower than a heavy favourite would produce. Our model leans towards Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35, flagging a value edge of around 3.95% at a market-implied confidence of 44%. That is a modest edge rather than a standout signal, so it fits as a lean on the favourite rather than a conviction play in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35. As home favourites with a small value edge near 4%, they are the model's lean, but the tight prices and 43% implied probability mean this is a moderate-risk pick with a real chance of a draw or away result.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?+
Our tip is Over 2.0 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 47% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?+
Atletico Paranaense are the favourites at 2.35 with Coolbet, implying about a 43% chance. Fluminense are the outsiders at 3.33, around 30%.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.20 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 31% probability, close to the away-win price.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model identifies a modest value edge of about 3.95% on Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35. No selections cleared the higher value threshold against market consensus, so the edge is slim.
When does the match kick off?+
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Brasileirão.