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አማርኛ ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Today · 23:00
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.93
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 54%
AI Value edge 4.13% · best price at Matchbook
Bet at Matchbook Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Botafogo are the market favourites at 2.13, implying around a 47% chance, clearly ahead of Atletico Paranaense at 3.6 (about 28%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.5, roughly a 29% implied probability, indicating the market does not heavily discount a stalemate.
03
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 sits at about 54% implied confidence, pointing to expectations of a tighter, lower-scoring game.
04
The value edge on the recommended bet is negative at -4.08%, so this is a lean rather than a priced overlay, and no picks cleared our value threshold.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 48%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.69 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
BOT Botafogo LDWDW
16 Aug 26 @ Vitória 0-1
9 Aug 26 vs Fluminense 1-1
26 Jul 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-0
23 Jul 26 vs Vitória 0-0
16 Jul 26 vs Santos 2-1
AP Atletico Paranaense DWDWW
15 Aug 26 vs Bragantino 1-1
9 Aug 26 @ Santos 2-0
30 Jul 26 @ Corinthians 0-0
25 Jul 26 vs Internacional 2-0
23 Jul 26 @ São Paulo 2-1
Head-to-head: Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense
L 29 Mar 26
Paranaense 4-1 BotafogoBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Botafogo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOT | X | 2 · AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.25 | 3.21 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.43 | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| BetAnything | 2.43 | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.21 | 3.17 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: match preview
This Brasileirao clash sees Botafogo host Atletico Paranaense, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Botafogo are priced at 2.13 with 1xBet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 47%, while Atletico Paranaense sit out at 3.6 (about 28%). The draw is quoted around 3.5, or close to 29% in implied terms, so the market sees a contest tilted towards the hosts without being one-sided. Rather than backing the outright result, our model leans towards the Under 2.5 goals line at 1.78, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -4.08%, meaning the price offers no clear overlay against the market. For those following the goals angle in this Botafogo versus Atletico Paranaense fixture, the read is a modestly cautious, lower-scoring expectation rather than a strong value play.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, reflecting a lower-scoring expectation with around 54% implied confidence. Honestly, the negative value edge means there is no market overlay here, so treat this as a modest lean, not a strong edge. Stake responsibly and only what you can afford.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 54% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?+
Botafogo are the favourites at 2.13, implying roughly a 47% chance. Atletico Paranaense are the outsiders at 3.6, around 28%.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of about 29%.
Is there value in this fixture?+
No value pick cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.08%, so it is a lean rather than a genuine overlay.
When does the match kick off?+
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense takes place Today · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.