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አማርኛ ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sun · 21:30
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.17
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 48%
AI Value edge 3.17% · best price at GTbets
Bet at GTbets Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Palmeiras are the market favourites at 2.0, an implied probability of roughly 50%, against Mirassol's 4.01 (about 25%).
02
The draw at 3.46 implies around 29%, sitting between the two sides and reflecting a competitive pricing structure.
03
Our model's only flagged edge is on Over 2.0 goals at 1.66, with a value edge of 14.29% and implied confidence near 54%.
04
No match-result value pick cleared our threshold, so the goals line is where the model sees the mispricing.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 53%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.42 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.30 |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.60 |
| 0-2 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 1.59. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
MIR Mirassol DLLWD
23 Aug 26 @ Santos 1-1
16 Aug 26 vs Flamengo 1-5
9 Aug 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-3
29 Jul 26 vs Clube do Remo 2-1
25 Jul 26 @ Vasco da Gama 1-1
PAL Palmeiras WLDWL
23 Aug 26 vs Vasco da Gama 4-1
15 Aug 26 @ Fluminense 2-3
9 Aug 26 vs Internacional 0-0
30 Jul 26 @ Vitória 4-0
26 Jul 26 vs Mineiro 1-2
Head-to-head: Mirassol v Palmeiras
Full H2H history → L 15 Mar 26
Palmeiras 1-0 MirassolBrasileirão
W 9 Nov 25
Mirassol 2-1 PalmeirasBrasileirão
D 16 Jul 25
Palmeiras 1-1 MirassolBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · MIR | X | 2 · PAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.73 | 3.31 | 2.12 |
| Matchbook | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.14 |
| Coolbet | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.13 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.13 |
| GTbets | 3.80 | 3.26 | 2.04 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: match preview
This Brasileirão clash sees Mirassol host Palmeiras, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Palmeiras are priced at 2.0 with Coolbet, translating to an implied probability of around 50%, while Mirassol sit out at 4.01 (roughly 25%). The draw is quoted at 3.46, worth about 29% in implied terms. Those numbers frame Palmeiras as clear favourites, though a price of 2.0 still reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than a foregone conclusion. Our model, however, steers away from picking a winner and instead looks to the goals market. The recommended bet is Over 2.0 goals at 1.66 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54% and a value edge of 14.29%. In short, the numbers suggest a lean towards an open, goal-friendly contest rather than a confident call on the outright result between Mirassol and Palmeiras.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.0 goals at 1.66, supported by a 14.29% value edge and around 54% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk bet leaning on an open game rather than a specific winner. Treat the edge as a lean, not a certainty, and stake responsibly.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.17, with a 48% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?+
Palmeiras are the favourites at 2.0 with Coolbet, an implied probability of about 50%. Mirassol are the outsiders at 4.01, roughly 25%.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.46 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 29%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model found no match-result pick above its value threshold, but it flags Over 2.0 goals at 1.66 with a 14.29% value edge and about 54% implied confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
Mirassol vs Palmeiras takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.