Brasileirão · Sat · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Sao Paulo are favourites at 2.16 (about 46% implied), with Bragantino-SP the outsiders at 3.58 (about 28%).
The gap between the two sides is moderate rather than huge, leaving room for an upset in the pricing.
The draw is priced at 3.33, roughly 30% implied, a realistic outcome the market takes seriously.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.66 carries about 58% implied confidence, but its value edge is negative at -4.12%, meaning no market-beating value was found.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 9.97 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.30 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sao Paulo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SP | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.31 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.26 | 3.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.21 | 3.26 | 3.44 |
| Matchbook | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Coolbet | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| GTbets | 2.13 | 3.23 | 3.56 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sao Paulo host Bragantino-SP in this Brasileirao clash, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. The home price of 2.16 with 1xBet translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 46%, marking Sao Paulo as clear favourites without making them overwhelming ones. Bragantino-SP are rated a genuine outsider at 3.58, an implied chance near 28%, while the draw sits at 3.33, or around 30% in probability terms. Those numbers describe a game the bookmaker expects to be competitive rather than one-sided. Our model, meanwhile, looks past the match result and leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 1.66, an implied confidence of about 58%. That said, the value edge on this pick reads negative at -4.12%, so it is a lean based on expected goal flow rather than a price advantage. Below we break down what the odds are telling us for this fixture.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.66, reflecting an expectation of a lower-scoring game rather than a price edge, since the value figure is negative. Treat it as a modest-confidence angle, not a standout bet, and stake within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 45% confidence rating.
Sao Paulo are the favourites at 2.16 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 46%. Bragantino-SP are the outsiders at 3.58, roughly 28%.
The draw is priced at 3.33 with 1xBet, which implies around a 30% chance. That makes it a credible outcome according to the market.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.66 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.12%, so it is a model lean rather than a value play.
Sao Paulo vs Bragantino-SP takes place Sat · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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