Premier League ยท Sat ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Tottenham are the favourites at 2.11 (around 47% implied), ahead of Newcastle at 3.48 (around 29%).
The draw is priced at 3.95, implying roughly 25%, a fairly standard quote for a game with a moderate favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.7 carries about 58% implied confidence but a marginally negative value edge of -1.53%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus, suggesting the prices are broadly efficient.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.66 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.38 |
| 1-0 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.19 |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 15.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.52 and 1.38. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Tottenham Hotspur's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท TH | X | 2 ยท NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.71 | 3.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.28 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.27 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Tottenham Hotspur host Newcastle United in the Premier League, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. Spurs are priced at 2.11 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 47%, while Newcastle sit at 3.48, or about 29%. The draw is quoted at 3.95, worth around 25% in implied terms. That gap makes Tottenham the favourite, though not an overwhelming one, leaving Newcastle enough room in the pricing to be treated as a live outsider rather than a write-off. Our model steps away from the match-result market here and instead points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, with a market-implied confidence of about 58%. Note, though, that the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a standout opportunity. This preview stays grounded in those prices, so treat the numbers as the starting point for your own judgement.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, backed by roughly 58% implied confidence. However, its value edge is slightly negative at -1.53%, so this is a modest preference rather than a strong edge. Stake responsibly and only if the goals angle fits your own read.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Sunderland v Fulham | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 57% confidence rating.
Tottenham Hotspur are the favourites at 2.11 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 47%. Newcastle United are the outsiders at 3.48, roughly 29%.
The draw is priced at 3.95 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 25%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a clear value bet.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United takes place Sat ยท 16:30 in the Premier League.
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