Premier League ยท Sun ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Chelsea are the favourites at 2.18 (about 46% implied), but the gap to Brighton at 3.33 (about 30%) is not enormous.
The draw is priced at 3.9, implying roughly 26%, keeping a stalemate firmly in the picture.
Our model rates Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 as the recommended play, with a value edge of 3.15% and around 46% implied confidence.
The draw is also flagged for value, with a fair probability estimated at 29% against a 3.9 price, an edge of about 12.23%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.27 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 2-0 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.31. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win | 3.75 | +5.5% | 28% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Chelsea's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท CHE | X | 2 ยท BAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.04 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| Matchbook | 2.04 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.88 | 3.69 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.02 | 3.82 | 3.64 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Chelsea host Brighton and Hove Albion in the Premier League, and the market leans towards the home side without treating them as an overwhelming favourite. Chelsea are priced at 2.18, which implies roughly a 46% chance of victory, while Brighton sit at 3.33, or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is available at 3.9, translating to close to 26%. That spread points to a competitive fixture where an away result is far from ruled out. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result market and towards the goals line: Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 carries a market-implied confidence of around 46% and a modest value edge of 3.15%. In short, the pricing suggests a Chelsea edge but a tight enough contest that a low-scoring outcome is plausible. The numbers frame this as a match to approach selectively rather than one with a clear standout on the result line.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.24, supported by a small 3.15% edge and roughly 46% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lean, reflecting a tight-looking fixture. Stake responsibly and treat the value as marginal.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Sunderland v Fulham | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 45% confidence rating.
Chelsea are the favourites at 2.18, which implies about a 46% chance of winning. Brighton are priced at 3.33, roughly 30% in probability terms.
The draw is priced at 3.9 with 1xBet, implying around a 26% chance. Our model estimates a fair probability closer to 29%, flagging an edge of about 12.23%.
Our model highlights two spots: Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 with a 3.15% edge, and the draw at 3.9 with a larger estimated edge of 12.23%. Both are model-based views, and outcomes remain uncertain.
Chelsea vs Brighton and Hove Albion takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the Premier League.
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