Premier League ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Bournemouth are favourites at 1.85 (around 54% implied), with Everton at 4.43 and the draw at 4.01, showing a meaningful but not extreme gap.
Our model rates Everton at a 28% fair probability against a 4.43 price, producing a notable value edge of 23.65%.
The draw also screens as value, with a 30% fair probability versus its 4.01 price for an edge of 19.82%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.76 has about 56% implied confidence but a marginally negative edge of -1.44%, so it is fair rather than a standout price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.78 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.78 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 1-2 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.66 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bournemouth's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BOU | X | 2 ยท EVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.14 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Matchbook | 2.14 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.11 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Bournemouth host Everton in this Premier League fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Bournemouth are priced at 1.85 with 1xBet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 54%, while Everton drift out to 4.43 (around 23% implied) and the draw sits at 4.01 (about 25%). That price gap frames the hosts as clear favourites, though not overwhelmingly so given the double-digit percentage still attached to both the away win and the stalemate. Rather than backing a side outright, our model leans towards the total: Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 56%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -1.44%, meaning the price roughly matches or marginally lags fair value. The more interesting numbers from a value standpoint appear on Everton and the draw, both of which our model flags as priced above their fair probability.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, a roughly 56% confidence call on a goal-filled contest. With a slightly negative value edge, it is a fair-priced rather than a bargain bet, so treat it as moderate risk and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Sunderland v Fulham | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 51% confidence rating.
Bournemouth are the favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance. Everton are the outsiders at 4.43, around 23% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.01 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 25%. Our model rates the draw's fair probability higher at 30%, flagging a value edge of 19.82%.
According to our model, the strongest value sits on Everton (edge 23.65%) and the draw (edge 19.82%), both priced above their fair probabilities. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick has a marginally negative edge of -1.44%.
Bournemouth vs Everton takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Premier League.
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