Premier League ยท Sun ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The odds are tight: Brentford at 2.64 (about 38% implied) are only marginally ahead of Leeds United at 2.84 (about 35%), a small price gap.
The model recommends Leeds United to win at 2.84, citing a value edge of 9.76% and a fair probability of 37% against the market.
The draw at 3.79 implies roughly 26%, but the model assigns it a 30% fair probability and the largest edge of the three at 14.05%.
With no side priced as a heavy favourite, the market frames this as one of the more evenly matched fixtures on the card.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.86 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 13.83 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 1.22. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Leeds United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LU | X | 2 ยท BRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Matchbook | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.59 | 3.46 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Leeds United host Brentford in the Premier League with a market that sees this one as genuinely close to a coin flip. Brentford are the narrow favourites at a best price of 2.64, which implies roughly a 38% chance, while Leeds United sit just behind at 2.84, translating to about 35% in the market's eyes. The draw is priced at 3.79, or around 26% implied. Those tight numbers point to a fixture without a clear standout. Our model, however, leans towards the hosts: it rates Leeds United to win at 2.84 as the recommended play, flagging a market-implied confidence of 39% and a value edge of 9.76%. In other words, the model believes the price on Leeds is a touch generous relative to the odds on offer. It is a value-driven angle rather than a call on any team being dominant.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Leeds United to win at 2.84, supported by a value edge close to 10%. This is a moderate-risk pick in a tightly priced match where any of the three outcomes is plausible. The draw also shows value on the model's numbers. Stake responsibly and treat these as calculated angles, not certainties.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Sunderland v Fulham | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.96, with a 51% confidence rating.
Brentford are the slight favourites at a best price of 2.64, implying about a 38% chance. Leeds United are close behind at 2.84, around 35% implied, so the market sees a near-even contest.
The draw is priced at 3.79 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 26% chance. Our model actually rates the draw's fair probability higher at 30%, giving it the largest value edge of 14.05%.
Our model thinks so, recommending Leeds United to win at 2.84 with a value edge of 9.76% and a fair probability of 37%. Value indicates a favourable price, not a guaranteed result, so manage your stakes carefully.
Leeds United vs Brentford takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the Premier League.
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