Premier League ยท Sun ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The odds gap between Sunderland (2.69) and Fulham (2.9) is narrow, marking this as close to a pick-em with Sunderland only fractionally favoured.
Implied probabilities land near 37% for Sunderland, 34% for Fulham and 30% for the draw, underlining how balanced the market considers this fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 carries about 46% market-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -1.36%, so it does not clear our value threshold.
No value picks exceeded the threshold against market consensus, suggesting the prices broadly reflect fair estimates.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.63 |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 7.92 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.69 |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | 10.07 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.27 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sunderland's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SUN | X | 2 ยท FUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.96 |
| Betfair | 2.66 | 3.35 | 2.98 |
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.35 | 2.91 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.64 | 3.30 | 2.86 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Premier League clash between Sunderland and Fulham is one the market sees as genuinely close to a coin toss. Sunderland are marginally the shorter price at 2.69, implying roughly a 37% chance, while Fulham sit at 2.9, translating to about 34%. The draw is priced at 3.35, or around 30% implied. With no side priced as a clear favourite, the bookmakers are effectively signalling a balanced contest where home advantage gives Sunderland only the slimmest edge. Rather than backing the match result, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.14. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 46%. It is worth noting the value edge on this selection is slightly negative at -1.36%, so it sits below our usual value threshold. This is a preview grounded purely in the pricing on offer, not on team news or form we cannot verify.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.14, but with a negative value edge of -1.36% this is a marginal call rather than a standout play. Treat it as a low-conviction lean in a tightly priced match, and stake responsibly given the uncertainty involved.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Sunderland to win at odds of 2.70, with a 39% confidence rating.
Sunderland are the narrow favourites at 2.69, just ahead of Fulham at 2.9. The gap is small, so the market views this as a close contest.
The best available draw price is 3.35 with Nordic Bet, implying roughly a 30% chance of the match ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.36%, so value is limited here.
Sunderland vs Fulham takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the Premier League.
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