Premier League ยท Sat ยท 11:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.09 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.75 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Liverpool's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LIV | X | 2 ยท NF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.52 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Matchbook | 1.52 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.78 | 6.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.54 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.53 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Liverpool host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Liverpool are priced at 1.53, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 65%, marking them as clear favourites on home soil. Nottingham Forest are the outsiders at 6.55, or about 15% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 4.72, close to a 21% chance. That spread underlines a sizeable gap in the market's assessment of the two sides. Rather than backing the result outright, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.67. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 59%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -1.52%, so this is a lean rather than a standout value spot. Approach it as one angle among several, and keep stakes within a sensible bankroll.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Sunderland v Fulham | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50, with a 40% confidence rating.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest takes place Sat ยท 11:30 in the Premier League.
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