Liga MX · Sun · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Toluca are strongly favoured at 1.36, implying roughly 73 percent probability of victory according to the market
Atletico San Luis at 7.0 imply only around 14 percent probability, reflecting a significant price gap between the two sides
The draw is priced at 4.8, equating to about 21 percent implied probability, a secondary option behind the home win
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.67 carries a 55 percent implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of minus 7.57 percent, meaning the model sees it as a fair rather than clearly advantageous price
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.72 |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 13.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.27 and 0.92. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.65 | +12.4% | 20% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TOL | X | 2 · ASL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.33 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.60 | 7.89 |
| Coolbet | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| GTbets | 1.34 | 5.39 | 7.69 |
| Matchbook | 1.32 | 5.50 | 7.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.30 | 7.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Toluca host Atletico San Luis in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Unibet (NL) prices Toluca at 1.36 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 73 percent, making them heavy favourites on home soil. Atletico San Luis drift out to 7.0, translating to around 14 percent implied probability, while the draw sits at 4.8, close to 21 percent. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the visitors given only a modest chance of causing an upset. Rather than backing the outright winner, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.67, a price that implies a 55 percent chance based on the odds, even though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at minus 7.57 percent. It is a pragmatic angle that sidesteps the one-sided match-result market while still engaging with the fixture.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.67 offers a reasonably likely outcome based on market pricing, with 55 percent implied confidence, though the negative value edge means it is not flagged as a standout opportunity. Treat it as a measured, lower-risk alternative to the one-sided match-result market rather than a high-conviction play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Santos Laguna v Querétaro | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| 17 Oct 23:07 | Guadalajara v Tigres | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | León v América | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| 18 Oct 03:10 | Cruz Azul v FC Juárez | 1.34 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
| 19 Oct 01:00 | Monterrey v Pachuca | 1.83 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 46% confidence rating.
Toluca are strong favourites, priced at 1.36 with Unibet (NL), which implies about a 73 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.8, which corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 21 percent.
No match-result value picks met the threshold in this analysis. The model instead flags Under 3.5 goals at 1.67 as its recommendation, though this comes with a slightly negative calculated value edge of minus 7.57 percent, so it should be viewed as reasonable rather than a clear edge.
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis takes place Sun · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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