Liga MX · Sat · 23:07 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Guadalajara are priced at 1.89 with Pinnacle, implying roughly 53 percent win probability, making them the clear favourite over Tigres.
Tigres at 4.25 imply around 24 percent, while the draw at 3.65 (1xBet) sits close behind at about 27 percent, keeping the non-favourite outcomes within reach of each other.
The combined overround across the three-way market is modest, suggesting fairly tight bookmaker margins on this fixture.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.04 carries a 47 percent model confidence against a market-implied 49 percent, producing a slight negative edge of -3.53 percent rather than a clear value signal.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.84 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.98 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.47 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres to win | 4.44 | +7.8% | 24% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GUA | X | 2 · TIG |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.89 | 3.47 | 4.28 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.53 | 4.44 |
| Coolbet | 1.88 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| GTbets | 1.86 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Matchbook | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.70 | 3.98 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga MX action brings Guadalajara and Tigres together in a fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the hosts. Pinnacle prices Guadalajara at 1.89, which implies a win probability of roughly 53 percent, while Tigres sit out at 4.25 (about 24 percent) and the draw is quoted at 3.65 with 1xBet (around 27 percent). That spread shows bookmakers see Guadalajara as the clear favourite, with Tigres considered a live but distinctly secondary outcome. Away from the three-way market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with Unibet (SE) as its recommended angle. That price carries a market-implied probability near 49 percent, and the model assigns it a 47 percent confidence level, translating to a modest negative value edge of -3.53 percent rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 is the model's lean, but with a -3.53 percent edge it is not a strong value play, more a marginally priced option. Guadalajara's market favouritism is pronounced, yet nothing here points to a high-confidence angle. Bettors should treat this as a measured, moderate-risk selection and manage stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Santos Laguna v Querétaro | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | Toluca v Atlético San Luis | 1.36 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | León v América | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| 18 Oct 03:10 | Cruz Azul v FC Juárez | 1.34 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
| 19 Oct 01:00 | Monterrey v Pachuca | 1.83 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
Guadalajara are the clear market favourites at 1.89 with Pinnacle, implying about a 53 percent win probability, compared with Tigres at 4.25 (around 24 percent).
The draw is available at 3.65 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 27 percent probability, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
No standout value picks clear the threshold in the three-way market; the model's main lean is Under 2.5 goals at 2.04, though that carries a slight negative edge of -3.53 percent rather than confirmed value.
Guadalajara vs Tigres takes place Sat · 23:07 in the Liga MX.
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