Liga MX · Sun · 03:10 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Cruz Azul are strongly favoured at 1.4, implying roughly a 71% chance of a home win according to the market
FC Juárez's 6.5 price implies only about 15% probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides
The draw is priced at 4.6, around a 22% implied chance, which is not unusual given the home side's dominant pricing
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.18 shows a negative value edge of 7.39%, meaning the model does not see this price as favourable despite its 42% confidence
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 3-0 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
| 1-1 | 6.9% | 14.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.66 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CA | X | 2 · FJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.46 | 8.71 |
| GTbets | 1.34 | 5.04 | 8.81 |
| Coolbet | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.50 |
| Matchbook | 1.31 | 5.40 | 8.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 5.30 | 8.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cruz Azul host FC Juárez in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.4 on a home win imply a probability of roughly 71%, making Cruz Azul heavy favourites, while FC Juárez at 6.5 are priced at around 15% and the draw at 4.6 sits near 22%. Those numbers point to a lopsided encounter on paper, at least according to the bookmakers. Interestingly, the model's recommended angle here isn't on the match result market at all, but on Over 3.5 goals at 2.18, which carries an implied probability near 46% against a model confidence of 42%. That gap produces a negative value edge of just over 7%, meaning the price doesn't quite align favourably with the model's own estimate, so this is one to treat with extra caution rather than a clear-cut recommendation.
Verdict: The match-result market strongly favours Cruz Azul, but the highlighted selection is Over 3.5 goals at 2.18. With a model confidence of 42% against an implied 46% and a negative value edge, this looks like a speculative, higher-risk angle rather than a confident value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Santos Laguna v Querétaro | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| 17 Oct 23:07 | Guadalajara v Tigres | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | Toluca v Atlético San Luis | 1.36 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | León v América | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| 19 Oct 01:00 | Monterrey v Pachuca | 1.83 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.34, with a 42% confidence rating.
Cruz Azul are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.4 for a home win, which implies roughly a 71% chance of victory.
The draw is available at 4.6, implying an approximate 22% probability based on current market prices.
No clear value picks were flagged against the match-result market. The model's featured angle, Over 3.5 goals at 2.18, actually shows a negative value edge of about 7.39%, so it should be approached cautiously rather than as a strong value bet.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez takes place Sun · 03:10 in the Liga MX.
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