Liga MX · Sat · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | 9.80 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · QUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.45 | 3.51 | 2.81 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| GTbets | 2.44 | 3.46 | 2.77 |
| Matchbook | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.78 |
| Coolbet | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 3.45 | 2.72 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga MX action brings together Santos Laguna and Querétaro in a fixture where the betting market sees almost nothing between the two sides. Best prices have Querétaro at 2.48 and Santos Laguna at 2.5, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 40.3% and 40% respectively, while the draw sits out at 3.5 (about 28.6%). That spread points to a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 at 2.25 as the recommended angle, with a modelled confidence of 41% against the market's own pricing. It is worth noting this comes with a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a standout opportunity. No side of the match-result market cleared our value threshold this time.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:07 | Guadalajara v Tigres | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | Toluca v Atlético San Luis | 1.36 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | León v América | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| 18 Oct 03:10 | Cruz Azul v FC Juárez | 1.34 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
| 19 Oct 01:00 | Monterrey v Pachuca | 1.83 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 58% confidence rating.
Santos Laguna vs Querétaro takes place Sat · 23:00 in the Liga MX.
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