Liga MX · Mon · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Monterrey are priced at 1.88, implying a win probability above 53 percent and establishing them as clear favourites
Pachuca's 3.95 price implies around 25 percent, with the draw at 4.05 (about 24.7 percent) nearly as likely according to the market
No side of the match-result market clears the value threshold versus consensus pricing, so no outright value pick is flagged here
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection carries a -4.61 percent value edge, meaning the model does not see this as a clear positive-value play despite being the top-rated option available
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.83 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.74 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.22 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.66 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.89 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.49 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.64 and 1.27. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.30 | +3.4% | 24% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MON | X | 2 · PAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.73 | 4.30 | 4.18 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 4.25 | 4.15 |
| GTbets | 1.83 | 3.83 | 3.96 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 3.98 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Monterrey host Pachuca in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. At 1.88, Monterrey carry an implied win probability of just over 53 percent, making them clear favourites over Pachuca, whose 3.95 price implies roughly 25 percent. The draw, priced at 4.05 with Pinnacle, sits close behind Pachuca at just under 25 percent implied probability, suggesting the market sees this more as a two-way contest between a home win and a stalemate than a genuine away upset. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points toward the total-goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.32. That price reflects a market-implied confidence of 41 percent for the under, though the model's own edge calculation comes out slightly negative, a detail worth keeping in mind before staking.
Verdict: The suggested angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.32, reflecting 41 percent implied confidence from the model. With a negative value edge of -4.61 percent, this is not flagged as a strong value bet, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident recommendation. Bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Santos Laguna v Querétaro | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| 17 Oct 23:07 | Guadalajara v Tigres | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | Toluca v Atlético San Luis | 1.36 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | León v América | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| 18 Oct 03:10 | Cruz Azul v FC Juárez | 1.34 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 41% confidence rating.
Monterrey are the clear favourites at 1.88, which implies a win probability of just over 53 percent, compared with Pachuca's 3.95 (around 25 percent) and the draw at 4.05 (about 25 percent).
The best available draw price is 4.05 with Pinnacle, implying a probability of roughly 24.7 percent, only marginally behind Pachuca's own win chance.
No match-result selection clears the value threshold against market consensus. The model's top pick is Under 2.5 goals at 2.32, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.61 percent rather than a confirmed positive edge.
Monterrey vs Pachuca takes place Mon · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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