Liga MX · Sun · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
América are priced as favourites at 2.24, implying roughly 44-45% win probability, versus León's 3.22 (about 31%).
The draw is the shortest-priced outcome relative to its own market position at 3.58 (1xBet), implying close to 28%, keeping the game competitive on paper.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.67 carries a negative value edge of -5.44%, meaning the market price is slightly less generous than the model's 57% confidence would suggest.
No additional value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus, indicating the match-result market is viewed as fairly priced overall.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 0-1 | 11.9% | 8.42 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 0-2 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.39 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.03 and 1.52. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEÓ | X | 2 · AMÉ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 3.39 | 2.42 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.91 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| GTbets | 2.92 | 3.65 | 2.28 |
| Matchbook | 2.92 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| Coolbet | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
León host América in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Pinnacle's 2.24 on América implies a win probability of roughly 44-45%, noticeably higher than León's 3.22 price, which points to about 31%. The draw, best backed at 3.58 with 1xBet, sits around 28% implied, keeping this from looking like a one-sided mismatch on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with William Hill as its recommended angle, though it comes with a modest negative value edge of -5.44% against a 57% confidence read. That combination suggests a plausible goals market rather than a standout mispricing, and bettors should weigh it alongside the moderately favoured América in the outright betting.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.67 is the only flagged angle, backed by 57% model confidence, but its negative value edge means it is not presented as a clear market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk consideration rather than a confidently undervalued bet, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 01:00 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Tijuana v Puebla | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.17 |
| 17 Oct 03:00 | Atlante FC v Pumas | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Santos Laguna v Querétaro | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| 17 Oct 23:07 | Guadalajara v Tigres | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| 18 Oct 01:00 | Toluca v Atlético San Luis | 1.36 | 5.65 | 8.10 |
| 18 Oct 03:10 | Cruz Azul v FC Juárez | 1.34 | 5.65 | 9.20 |
| 19 Oct 01:00 | Monterrey v Pachuca | 1.83 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16, with a 44% confidence rating.
América are the market favourites, priced at 2.24 with Pinnacle, which implies a win probability of roughly 44-45 percent compared with León's 3.22 price.
The best available draw price is 3.58 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 28 percent chance according to the market.
The only flagged selection is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 from William Hill, but it shows a negative value edge of -5.44 percent against 57 percent model confidence, so it is not a strong value play; no match-result picks cleared the value threshold.
León vs América takes place Sun · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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