Scottish Premiership ยท Sun ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The match-result prices are close: St Mirren at 2.6 (about 38%) narrowly ahead of Motherwell at 2.89 (about 35%).
The draw is priced at 3.19, an implied probability near 31%, underlining how evenly the market rates this fixture.
Our model's only flagged edge is on Under 2.5 goals at 1.86, with a 6.4% value edge and 57% implied confidence.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold, so the goals total is the standout angle here rather than backing a winner.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.5% | 6.44 |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.69 |
| 0-0 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 0-2 | 9.6% | 10.41 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.84 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 69% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SM | X | 2 ยท MOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.19 | 2.86 |
| Betsson | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.12 | 2.77 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.56 | 3.12 | 2.77 |
| Tipico | 2.55 | 2.95 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Scottish Premiership meeting between St Mirren and Motherwell arrives with the market leaning slightly toward the home side. St Mirren are priced at 2.6, implying roughly a 38% chance of victory, while Motherwell sit at 2.89, or about 35%. The draw is available at 3.19, translating to close to 31%. Those numbers describe a genuinely tight contest rather than a clear favourite, with the two-way pull between the sides separated by only a few points of implied probability. Rather than committing to a side in such a balanced fixture, our model steers toward the goals market. The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.86, carrying a market-implied confidence of 57% and a value edge of 6.4%. That angle reflects an expectation of a cagey, low-scoring affair, which the pricing across the match-result options broadly supports.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.86, backed by a modest 6.4% value edge and 57% confidence. It suits the tight, balanced pricing of this fixture. Treat it as a moderate-risk play, not a certainty, and stake within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86, with a 57% confidence rating.
St Mirren are marginal favourites at 2.6, implying about a 38% chance, just ahead of Motherwell at 2.89 (around 35%). The gap is small, so this is a closely priced match.
The draw is priced at 3.19 with Pinnacle, which works out to roughly a 31% implied probability. That reflects how evenly the market rates both teams.
The only pick above our threshold is Under 2.5 goals at 1.86, showing a 6.4% value edge and 57% implied confidence. No match-result selection qualified as value.
St Mirren vs Motherwell takes place Sun ยท 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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