Scottish Premiership ยท Sun ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Hibernian are favourites at 2.16 (about 46% implied), ahead of Dundee FC at 3.3 (roughly 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.55, implying near 28% โ a competitive line reflecting a reasonably close match.
The gap between the two match-result prices is moderate rather than wide, suggesting the market does not view this as a mismatch.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.85 shows a negative value edge of -4.13%, so it falls short of our value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.88 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.21 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท DF | X | 2 ยท HIB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.09 | 3.57 | 2.24 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.22 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.22 |
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.48 | 2.21 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.04 | 3.48 | 2.19 |
| Tipico | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Scottish Premiership fixture sees Dundee FC host Hibernian, with the market leaning towards the visitors. Hibernian sit as favourites at 2.16 with Pinnacle, translating to an implied probability of roughly 46%, while Dundee FC are priced at 3.3 (Codere), or around 30%. The draw is quoted at 3.55, implying about 28%. Those numbers add up to more than 100% due to the bookmaker margin, but the picture is clear enough: this is tilted towards Hibernian without being a lopsided contest, and a home win or draw remains well within reach. Our model's attention turns away from the result market and towards goals, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 (Pinnacle) with market-implied confidence around 52%. Notably, that pick carries a negative value edge of about -4.13%, meaning it sits below our value threshold and is offered here as a lean rather than a strong recommendation.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.85, backed by roughly 52% model confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.13%, so this is a marginal pick rather than a standout one. Stake responsibly and treat it as a modest position, not a conviction play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
Hibernian are the favourites at 2.16 with Pinnacle, which implies roughly a 46% chance. Dundee FC are priced at 3.3, around 30% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.55 with Pinnacle, implying approximately a 28% probability. That reflects a fairly competitive match rather than a one-sided outcome.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The model's Over 2.5 goals lean at 1.85 actually carries a negative edge of about -4.13%, so it is a marginal option rather than a strong value bet.
Dundee FC vs Hibernian takes place Sun ยท 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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