Scottish Premiership ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Celtic's 1.22 price implies roughly an 82% chance, framing them as clear favourites over Falkirk F.C.
Falkirk at 14.0 imply only about 7%, and the draw at 7.0 sits near 14% โ a wide gap across all three outcomes.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.88 carries market-implied confidence of around 51%, close to a coin flip.
The value edge on the Under is negative at about -4.04%, and no picks passed our value threshold for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 9.37 |
| 3-0 | 9.3% | 10.80 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
| 1-1 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.60 and 0.85. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท CEL | X | 2 ยท FFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.21 | 6.75 | 13.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 6.67 | 11.07 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.24 | 5.70 | 12.50 |
| Betsson | 1.24 | 5.70 | 12.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 6.45 | 12.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.20 | 6.45 | 12.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Celtic host Falkirk F.C. in the Scottish Premiership, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Celtic are priced at 1.22, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 82%, marking them as heavy home favourites. Falkirk sit at the other end of the scale at 14.0, implying only about 7%, while the draw is quoted at 7.0, or around 14%. Those numbers describe a fixture the bookmakers view as strongly one-sided rather than a close contest. Our model does not lean on the match result here; instead it points to Under 3.5 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle) as its recommended angle, with market-implied confidence around 51%. Notably, this pick carries a negative value edge of about -4.04%, so it is a preference rather than an identified overlay. No selections cleared our value threshold for this match, which is worth keeping in mind before staking.
Verdict: The model's lean is Under 3.5 goals at 1.88, reflecting near-even confidence around 51%. Be aware the value edge is negative at about -4.04%, so this is a modest preference, not an edge play. Treat it as a low-conviction call and stake responsibly within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Celtic are strong favourites at 1.22, implying about an 82% chance. Falkirk F.C. are long outsiders at 14.0, around 7%.
The draw is available at 7.0 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 14% probability of the match ending level.
No selections cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.88 actually shows a negative edge of about -4.04%, so it is a preference rather than a value bet.
Celtic vs Falkirk F.C. takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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