Scottish Premiership ยท Wed ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Motherwell are the favourites at 1.95 (around 51% implied), with Dundee United well behind at 4.0 (about 25%).
The draw is priced at 3.85, an implied probability of roughly 26%, close to the away side's chances.
Our model's only flagged edge is on Under 3.0 goals at 1.68, showing a 12.21% value edge and 54% implied confidence.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold, so the goals line is where the model sees the opportunity, not the outright winner.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.68 |
| 2-0 | 12.3% | 8.16 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.88 and 0.79. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท MOT | X | 2 ยท DU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Betsson | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.70 | 3.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.86 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Motherwell host Dundee United in the Scottish Premiership, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Motherwell are priced at 1.95 with Betsson, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 51%, marking them as the clear home favourite. Dundee United are the outsiders at 4.0 (about 25%), while the draw sits at 3.85 (around 26%). Those numbers suggest a contest the bookmakers see tilting Motherwell's way, though not by a commanding margin given the favourite is barely odds-against evens. Rather than backing the result, our model steers toward the goals market. The recommended bet is Under 3.0 goals at 1.68 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of 54% and a value edge of 12.21%. That points to expectations of a tighter, lower-scoring affair rather than a goal-heavy one, which shapes how we approach this matchup.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 3.0 goals at 1.68, backed by a 12.21% value edge and 54% model confidence, pointing to a lower-scoring game. It is a moderate-risk pick rather than a certainty, so stake responsibly and treat the edge as a lean, not a lock.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Motherwell to win at odds of 1.90, with a 55% confidence rating.
Motherwell are the favourites at 1.95 with Betsson, an implied probability of about 51%. Dundee United are the outsiders at 4.0, roughly 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies around a 26% chance of the game ending level.
Our model found no match-result value above threshold, but it does flag Under 3.0 goals at 1.68 as offering a 12.21% edge with 54% implied confidence.
Motherwell vs Dundee United takes place Wed ยท 18:45 in the Scottish Premiership.
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