Scottish Premiership ยท Wed ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Celtic at 1.28 imply about a 78% win probability, a sizeable gap over Aberdeen at 10.5 (roughly 10%).
The draw is priced at 6.5, implying near 15%, reflecting the market's expectation of a decisive result.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.87 carries a value edge of about 5.14% and 56% implied confidence.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold, so the totals market offered the better relative price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 12.3% | 8.13 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.26 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 3-0 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.02 |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | 13.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.28 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท CEL | X | 2 ยท ABE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.25 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
| Betsson | 1.28 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.28 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.90 | 9.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.25 | 5.90 | 9.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.26 | 5.75 | 8.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Scottish Premiership meeting between Celtic and Aberdeen arrives with a clear favourite in the eyes of the market. Celtic are priced at 1.28 with Betsson, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 78%, marking them as strong home favourites. Aberdeen sit at the other end of the scale at 10.5, implying only around a 10% chance, while the draw is offered at 6.5, worth about 15% in probability terms. Those numbers point to a contest the market expects Celtic to control. Rather than backing the heavily priced favourite, our model leans toward the total-goals angle: Under 3.5 goals at 1.87 with Unibet (SE). That price carries an estimated 56% market-implied confidence and a modest value edge of about 5.14%, making it the most appealing option identified here for this fixture.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.87, supported by a modest 5.14% value edge and 56% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong signal, since goal totals can swing on a single passage of play. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.87, with a 56% confidence rating.
Celtic are clear favourites at 1.28 with Betsson, implying about a 78% chance. Aberdeen are the outsiders at 10.5, worth roughly 10%.
The draw is priced at 6.5 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 15% probability.
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold. The one qualifying pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.87, with an estimated 5.14% value edge and 56% implied confidence.
Celtic vs Aberdeen takes place Wed ยท 18:45 in the Scottish Premiership.
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