Scottish Premiership ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The match-result prices are almost level: Dundee United at 2.64 (about 38%) and Kilmarnock at 2.60 (about 38.5%), so the market sees no clear favourite.
The draw at 3.60 implies roughly 28%, a typical figure that underlines how balanced the odds view this contest as being.
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold, meaning the home, away and draw prices all look broadly fair against the model.
The standout number is Over 2.75 goals at 2.01, carrying 54% implied confidence and an 8.31% value edge, the only recommended angle here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 9.96 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.86 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.24 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.83 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท KIL | X | 2 ยท DU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.54 | 2.64 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.54 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Scottish Premiership meeting between Kilmarnock and Dundee United at Kilmarnock lands as one of the tightest fixtures on the card, with the market barely able to separate the two sides. Dundee United sit at 2.64 with Pinnacle, translating to roughly 38% implied probability, while Kilmarnock are priced at 2.60 with Coolbet, or about 38.5%. In practice the odds make this close to a coin flip, with only marginal separation between home and away. The draw is available at 3.60, implying around 28%, a fairly standard figure for an evenly matched contest. Rather than backing either team to win, our model steers toward the goals market: Over 2.75 goals at 2.01 (Pinnacle) carries a market-implied confidence of 54% and a value edge of 8.31%. That makes total goals, not the match result, the standout angle here for anyone weighing this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.75 goals at 2.01, supported by a 54% confidence read and an 8.31% edge. It is a moderate-risk bet that depends on an open, goal-friendly game rather than a tight one. Treat it as a value lean, not a certainty, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Dundee FC v St Johnstone | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 54% confidence rating.
There is no strong favourite. Kilmarnock are marginally shorter at 2.60 versus Dundee United at 2.64, so the market rates the two sides almost equally.
The draw is priced at 3.60 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 28% chance of the match ending level.
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold, but Over 2.75 goals at 2.01 shows an 8.31% edge with 54% implied confidence, making the goals market the only recommended value angle.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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