Süper Lig · Sun · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Fenerbahce's 1.65 price implies about a 61% chance, making them the strong market favourite over Samsunspor.
Samsunspor at 5.25 carry a fair probability estimate of 22% versus their implied price, showing the model's largest value edge at 14.15%.
The draw is priced at 4.36 (roughly 23% implied) with a positive value edge of 6.26% against fair probability of 24%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.33 has around 42% implied confidence but a negative edge of -3.06%, marking it as a modest lean.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.03 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.95 |
| 0-2 | 6.0% | 16.72 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.51 and 1.91. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAM | X | 2 · FEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.09 | 4.36 | 1.65 |
| Coolbet | 5.25 | 4.30 | 1.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.05 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
| Pinnacle | 5.05 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.60 |
| GTbets | 5.01 | 4.18 | 1.61 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
The Süper Lig meeting between Samsunspor and Fenerbahce sees the visitors installed as clear favourites. Fenerbahce are priced at 1.65 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 61%, underlining how confident bookmakers are in an away result. Samsunspor, by contrast, sit at 5.25 with Coolbet, an implied chance of around 19%, while the draw is offered at 4.36 for about 23%. That spread reflects a genuine gap between the two sides in the market's eyes. Our model, however, is not focused on the winner but on the goals line: it recommends Under 2.5 goals at 2.33 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 42%. It is worth noting this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -3.06%, so it is a lean rather than a standout number. The value flags instead lean toward the underdog and the draw.
Verdict: Our recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.33, a moderate-risk pick with only about 42% implied confidence and a slightly negative value edge. Treat it as a lean rather than a strong signal. The more notable value flags sit on Samsunspor and the draw. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 18:30 | Kocaelispor v Amed SK | 2.46 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Erzurum BB | 2.19 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Kocaelispor | 2.10 | 3.65 | 3.71 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Goztepe | 1.44 | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.59 | 3.62 | 2.71 |
| 30 Aug 16:00 | Eyüpspor v Alanyaspor | 3.28 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| 30 Aug 18:30 | Basaksehir v Kasimpasa SK | 1.65 | 4.21 | 5.40 |
| 31 Aug 13:00 | Besiktas JK v Çorum FK | 1.35 | 5.20 | 9.03 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 58% confidence rating.
Fenerbahce are the favourites at 1.65, implying roughly a 61% chance. Samsunspor are outsiders at 5.25, around 19% implied.
The draw is available at 4.36 with 1xBet, which implies about a 23% probability. Our model rates its fair probability at 24%, giving a positive value edge of 6.26%.
Yes, the model highlights Samsunspor at 5.25 with a 14.15% edge and the draw at 4.36 with a 6.26% edge. The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick, by contrast, shows a small negative edge of -3.06%.
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce takes place Sun · 18:30 in the Süper Lig.
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