Süper Lig · Sun · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Basaksehir are firm favourites at 1.82, an implied probability of about 55%, compared with 5.5 for Kasimpasa SK at roughly 18%.
The recommended bet, Basaksehir to win, carries a market-implied confidence of 58% and a value edge of 5.59% at the 1.82 price.
Despite being outsiders, Kasimpasa SK show the largest value edge at 18.61%, with a fair probability estimated at 22% against a 5.5 price.
The draw is priced at 4.26, implying around 23%, with a modest value edge of 6.09% and a fair probability near 25%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | 7.97 |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.00 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 3-0 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 14.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.93 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAS | X | 2 · KS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.21 | 5.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62 | 4.15 | 5.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.63 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.09 | 5.17 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.59 | 4.05 | 5.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Basaksehir host Kasimpasa SK in the Süper Lig, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Basaksehir are priced at 1.82 with Betsson, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 55%, marking them as clear home favourites. Kasimpasa SK are the outsiders at 5.5 with Coolbet, implied at about 18%, while the draw sits at 4.26 with 1xBet, or around 23% in probability terms. Our model leans toward the favourite, recommending Basaksehir to win at 1.82 with a market-implied confidence of 58% and a value edge of 5.59%. That points to a scenario where the home price may slightly understate their chances. It is worth noting the model also flags value elsewhere, particularly on Kasimpasa SK at the longer end, so this fixture offers more than one angle for those weighing the numbers carefully.
Verdict: The recommended play is Basaksehir to win at 1.82, backed by a 58% implied confidence and a 5.59% edge. It is a reasonable favourite-side bet rather than a lock, and upsets happen. Stake responsibly and treat the flagged value on Kasimpasa SK as an alternative angle.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 18:30 | Kocaelispor v Amed SK | 2.46 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Erzurum BB | 2.19 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Kocaelispor | 2.10 | 3.65 | 3.71 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Goztepe | 1.44 | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.59 | 3.62 | 2.71 |
| 30 Aug 16:00 | Eyüpspor v Alanyaspor | 3.28 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| 30 Aug 18:30 | Samsunspor v Fenerbahce | 5.25 | 4.36 | 1.65 |
| 31 Aug 13:00 | Besiktas JK v Çorum FK | 1.35 | 5.20 | 9.03 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 54% confidence rating.
Basaksehir are the favourites at a best price of 1.82 with Betsson, implying roughly a 55% chance. Kasimpasa SK are outsiders at 5.5, implied at about 18%.
The draw is available at 4.26 with 1xBet, which implies around a 23% probability. Our model estimates a fair probability closer to 25%, giving a small value edge of 6.09%.
Yes, according to our model. The recommended value bet is Basaksehir to win at 1.82 with a 5.59% edge, while Kasimpasa SK at 5.5 shows the largest edge at 18.61%. All values are estimates, not guarantees.
Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa SK takes place Sun · 18:30 in the Süper Lig.
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