Europa League ยท Thu ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Rennes are priced at 1.36 to win, implying a market probability of about 73.5 percent, making them clear favourites over OFI Crete.
OFI Crete's 9.6 price implies only around 10.4 percent, underlining how one-sided the market view is for this fixture.
The draw is quoted at 5.5, giving an implied probability of roughly 18 percent, a live but secondary outcome given the price gap.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.4 carries a model confidence of 40 percent against a market-implied 41.7 percent, producing a slightly negative value edge of -2.93 percent, so it is not flagged as a strong value play.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท REN | X | 2 ยท OC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.28 | 6.40 | 12.00 |
| Matchbook | 1.27 | 6.40 | 12.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.39 | 11.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.29 | 6.00 | 10.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.29 | 6.00 | 10.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.24 | 6.30 | 13.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Rennes host OFI Crete in the Europa League as strong favourites according to the betting market, with the best price on a home win at just 1.36 - implying a win probability of roughly 73%. The Greek visitors are rated a distant outsider at 9.6, translating to an implied chance of around 10%, while the draw sits at 5.5 (about 18%). With such a lopsided market, our model has looked past the match-result market entirely and flagged Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 as the recommended angle, reflecting an implied probability near 42% for a low-scoring contest between a heavily backed home side and a big underdog in European competition.
Verdict: The model's pick, Under 2.5 goals at 2.4, reflects a modest 40 percent confidence but comes with a negative value edge of -2.93 percent versus the market price. It is a plausible low-scoring scenario given Rennes' heavy favouritism, but bettors should treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear-cut value bet.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 42% confidence rating.
Rennes are strong favourites, priced at 1.36 for the win, which implies a market probability of roughly 73.5 percent.
The best available draw price is 5.5, implying an approximate 18 percent chance according to the market.
No clear value picks were identified versus market consensus. The model's Under 2.5 goals suggestion at 2.4 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -2.93 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk option rather than a value bet.
Rennes vs OFI Crete takes place Thu ยท 19:00 in the Europa League.
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