Europa League ยท Thu ยท 16:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
AZ Alkmaar's 1.35 price implies close to a 74% win probability, reflecting a strong market-side favourite status.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva's 10.0 price implies only around 10% winning probability according to the market.
The draw at 5.57 carries a model fair probability of 21%, well above its implied market probability of about 18%, producing a value edge of roughly 15.55%.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.93 has a market-implied confidence of 50% but shows a modest negative edge of -4% against the model's fair value assessment.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AA | X | 2 ยท HBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.32 | 6.20 | 10.50 |
| Betfair | 1.31 | 6.20 | 10.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.73 | 9.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.27 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.27 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.30 | 5.80 | 10.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in this Europa League fixture with the betting market firmly behind the Dutch side. Best odds of 1.35 on an AZ win translate to an implied probability of roughly 74%, making them heavy favourites, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva's price of 10.0 implies just a 10% chance of an away win. The draw sits at 5.57, implying around 18%. Against this backdrop, our model flags Over 3.0 goals at 1.93 as its recommended angle, giving the market roughly a 50% chance of that outcome landing, though the model's own edge calculation puts this pick at a slight -4% versus fair value. Separately, the draw stands out as a value price, with a fair probability estimate of 21% against a market price of 5.57, an edge of over 15%. Bettors weighing this AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva clash have several angles to consider beyond the straightforward favourite bet.
Verdict: The Over 3.0 goals selection at 1.93 offers a roughly coin-flip proposition per the model, though its slightly negative edge means it is not a standout value play. The draw's positive edge is more notable statistically, but with AZ heavily favoured, any non-favourite outcome carries real risk. Stake sizing should reflect this uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Jagiellonia Biaลystok v FC Ararat-Armenia | 1.44 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 52% confidence rating.
AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites, priced at 1.35 for the win, which implies a market probability of roughly 74%.
The best available price for the draw is 5.57, implying a market probability of about 18%, though the model's fair probability estimate is somewhat higher at 21%.
According to the data, the draw shows a positive value edge of around 15.55% versus its market price, while the recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.93 has a slight negative edge of -4%, so value is not guaranteed across all markets.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva takes place Thu ยท 16:45 in the Europa League.
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