Europa League ยท Thu ยท 16:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Sparta Prague's 1.38 price implies roughly a 72% win probability, reflecting a strong market-side favourite status.
Lillestrom's 9.0 odds imply only around 11% winning chance, underlining the gap between the two sides as priced by bookmakers.
The draw at 5.32 (about 19% implied) is flagged by the model as undervalued, with a fair probability estimate of 22% and a 14.84% edge versus market consensus.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.84 carries a modest 52% model confidence but a slightly negative edge of -3.94%, suggesting it is not a strong statistical value play despite being the model's pick.
Combined odds across the three match-result outcomes total over 102%, indicating a standard bookmaker margin built into the pricing.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SP | X | 2 ยท LIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.48 | 8.80 |
| Coolbet | 1.38 | 5.30 | 8.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.35 | 5.35 | 9.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.36 | 5.30 | 8.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Sparta Prague host Lillestrom in a Europa League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available odds of 1.38 on Sparta imply a win probability of roughly 72%, making the Czech side heavy favourites, while Lillestrom's 9.0 price points to just an 11% chance of an away win. The draw sits at 5.32, implying about 19%. Within this lopsided market, our model's recommended angle steers away from the match-result market altogether, pointing instead to Under 3.0 goals at 1.84 with Pinnacle, a bet the model rates at 52% confidence, though its calculated edge is slightly negative at -3.94%. Separately, the model flags the draw as the standout value pick, pricing its fair probability at 22% against a market price of 5.32, an edge of nearly 15% versus market consensus.
Verdict: The Under 3.0 goals selection at 1.84 is the model's headline recommendation, though its own numbers show a small negative edge, meaning it should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a clear-cut value bet. The draw's positive edge is statistically more interesting but still reflects Sparta's strong favourite status and inherent match unpredictability.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Jagiellonia Biaลystok v FC Ararat-Armenia | 1.44 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 52% confidence rating.
Sparta Prague are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.38, which implies roughly a 72% chance of victory, compared to about 11% implied for Lillestrom.
The best available draw price is 5.32, implying an approximate 19% probability, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it slightly higher at 22%.
The model highlights the draw as the clearest value pick, with a 14.84% edge over the market price, while its recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.84 shows a small negative edge of -3.94%, making it a moderate rather than standout selection.
Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom takes place Thu ยท 16:45 in the Europa League.
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