Europa League ยท Thu ยท 16:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Celje are priced shortest at 2.49, giving them an implied win probability of about 40%, the highest of the three outcomes
Omonoia sit at 2.96 (about 34% implied), keeping them within reach of the favourites rather than clear outsiders
The draw at 3.43 implies roughly 29%, the least likely single outcome but still a meaningful share of the market
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a -3.0% value edge, meaning the model does not see it as a genuine market inefficiency despite matching prices closely
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NC | X | 2 ยท OF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.84 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.82 |
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.49 | 2.83 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
NK Celje host Omonoia FC in a Europa League clash where the betting market makes the Slovenian side the clear favourite. At odds of 2.49, Celje's implied win probability sits at roughly 40%, well ahead of Omonoia's 2.96 price (about 34%) and the draw at 3.43 (around 29%). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest rather than a coin-flip European tie, though the draw price still reflects a realistic outcome given the overall spread. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to goals: Over 2.5 is priced at 1.94, implying a roughly 51.5% chance of three or more goals, close to the model's own 50% confidence reading. With no value picks clearing the site's threshold against market consensus, this preview leans on the numbers as they stand rather than any perceived mispricing.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.94 aligns closely with the model's 50% confidence read, but the -3.0% value edge means it is not flagged as a strong market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk angle rather than a standout opportunity, and stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Jagiellonia Biaลystok v FC Ararat-Armenia | 1.44 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 52% confidence rating.
NK Celje are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.49 compared to 2.96 for Omonoia, giving Celje an implied win probability of about 40% against Omonoia's 34%.
The draw is priced at 3.43, which implies a probability of roughly 29%, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the market.
No value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus for the match-result market. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.94 has a slightly negative value edge of -3.0%, so it should be treated as a moderate rather than standout opportunity.
NK Celje vs Omonoia FC takes place Thu ยท 16:45 in the Europa League.
English