Europa League · Thu · 16:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Leverkusen's 1.63 price implies roughly 61% win probability, making them strong favourites over Lech Poznań at 5.07 (about 20%)
The draw is priced at 4.51, implying close to 22% probability, the middle outcome by the numbers
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.84 corresponds to an implied probability near 54%, against a modelled confidence of 52%
No side of the match-result market currently clears the site's value threshold, and the goals total carries a slightly negative edge of -3.94%
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LP | X | 2 · BL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| Betfair | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.67 |
| 1xBet | 4.71 | 4.46 | 1.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.68 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.68 |
| Nordic Bet | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bayer Leverkusen head to Poznań as clear favourites for this Europa League clash, with the best available price of 1.63 implying a win probability of roughly 61%. Lech Poznań, at 5.07, are seen as having only about a 20% chance on paper, while the draw at 4.51 carries an implied probability near 22%. Those numbers point to a match the market expects Leverkusen to control, though home advantage and cup unpredictability keep the hosts from being written off entirely. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.0 goals at 1.84 as the recommended angle, built around a projected 52% likelihood of a high-scoring game. That said, the value edge on this selection comes in slightly negative at -3.94%, so it should be treated as a plausible scenario rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The data points firmly to Leverkusen as favourites, but the standout angle here is Over 3.0 goals at 1.84, backed by a 52% model confidence despite a marginally negative value edge. It is a reasonable, data-based option rather than a high-confidence value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Jagiellonia Białystok v FC Ararat-Armenia | 1.44 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 49% confidence rating.
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites, priced at 1.63, which implies roughly a 61% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.51, which translates to an implied probability of about 22%.
No selection in the match-result market clears the site's value threshold; the closest angle is Over 3.0 goals at 1.84, though its value edge is slightly negative at -3.94%, so it is not a standout value pick.
Lech Poznań vs Bayer Leverkusen takes place Thu · 16:45 in the Europa League.
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