Brasileirão · Mon · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Remo are favourites at 2.45 (about 41% implied), narrowly ahead of Coritiba at 3.02 (around 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.3, roughly 30% implied, reflecting a closely matched fixture rather than a one-sided one.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.15 has a market-implied confidence near 44%.
That goals pick carries a negative value edge of -5.69%, so the odds do not offer an advantage over the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.16 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 10.03 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 2-0 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.45 and 1.23. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Remo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · REM | X | 2 · COR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.29 | 3.50 |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.23 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Brasileirao clash sees Remo host Coritiba, and the market leans towards the home side. Remo are the shorter price at 2.45 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%. Coritiba are rated the outsiders at 3.02, about 33% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.3, close to 30%. That is a fairly tight spread, suggesting bookmakers see this as a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. Our model's attention is on the goals market rather than the match result: Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.15 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 44%. Note, however, that this pick shows a negative value edge of -5.69%, meaning the price does not offer an edge over the market's own estimate. Nothing here clears our value threshold, so this is a preview to weigh carefully.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.15, but with a negative value edge of -5.69% and no picks clearing our threshold, this is not a strong-value spot. Treat it as a marginal lean at best, stake responsibly, and only proceed if the goals angle fits your own read.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.
Remo are the favourites at 2.45 with Coolbet, implying about a 41% chance. Coritiba are the outsiders at 3.02, roughly 33%.
The draw is priced at 3.3 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of around 30%, indicating a fairly balanced fixture.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.69%, so the odds do not beat the market's implied estimate.
Remo vs Coritiba takes place Mon · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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