Europa League ยท Thu ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
NEC Nijmegen are favourites at 1.88, implying roughly 53% win probability compared with Levski Sofia's 4.2 price and about 24% implied chance
The draw is priced at 3.95 by Winamax (DE), implying close to 25%, showing the market does not fully dismiss a stalemate
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries an implied probability near 49.5%, just above the model's 48% confidence, leaving a modest negative value edge of -3.98%
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus, indicating the bookmaker prices are seen as broadly efficient for this fixture
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NN | X | 2 ยท PLS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.89 | 4.30 |
| Matchbook | 1.84 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.88 | 3.70 | 4.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.88 | 3.70 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.84 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.82 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
NEC Nijmegen host PFC Levski Sofia in a Europa League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. NEC are priced at 1.88 with Nordic Bet, which implies a win probability of roughly 53%, while Levski Sofia's 4.2 price points to just under 24% and the draw at 3.95 sits close behind at about 25%. Together those figures suggest bookmakers see NEC as moderate favourites without expecting a one-sided contest, since the draw and away win still combine for nearly half the implied probability. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with Pinnacle. That price implies a probability near 49.5%, slightly above the model's own 48% confidence reading, producing a small negative value edge rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.02 is a low-goals lean rather than a strong edge play, given the value gap sits slightly against the bettor at -3.98%. It reflects a plausible but not compelling angle, best treated as a measured, moderate-stakes option within a wider bankroll plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
NEC Nijmegen are the market favourites at 1.88, which implies a win probability of about 53%, compared with Levski Sofia's 4.2 price implying roughly 24%.
The draw is available at 3.95 with Winamax (DE), implying an approximate 25% chance according to the market.
No clear value picks were found above the threshold. The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.02, but its implied probability is slightly higher than the model's own confidence, giving a small negative edge of -3.98%.
NEC Nijmegen vs PFC Levski Sofia takes place Thu ยท 19:00 in the Europa League.
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