Europa League ยท Thu ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Marseille are priced as favourites at 2.15, implying a win probability near 46.5 percent, well above Olympiakos's implied 29 percent at 3.43.
The draw at 3.8 carries an implied probability of about 26 percent, keeping it a live outcome in a market that isn't heavily skewed.
No side of the match-result market clears the site's value threshold, with the data explicitly noting no qualifying value picks against market consensus.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.85 has a model confidence of 52 percent against an implied probability of about 54 percent from the odds, producing a negative value edge of -4.13 percent.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท MAR | X | 2 ยท OP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.42 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.42 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.63 | 3.17 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.32 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.32 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.30 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Marseille host Olympiakos Piraeus in a Europa League fixture where the betting market leans toward the French side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best odds of 2.15 on Marseille imply a win probability of roughly 46.5 percent, while Olympiakos at 3.43 sit at close to 29 percent, and the draw at 3.8 rounds out the market at around 26 percent. Those numbers point to a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with the bookmakers' overround suggesting a fairly tightly priced contest across all three outcomes. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Over 2.75 goals at 1.85 as the standout angle, though it's worth noting the value edge on that price comes in slightly negative, meaning the model's own probability estimate doesn't fully back the current odds despite the pick being highlighted.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals line at 1.85 is the recommendation on the table, but the numbers show a negative value edge, meaning the price doesn't fully align with the model's own probability estimate. Treat this as a moderate-risk angle rather than a clear-cut value play, and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Marseille are the market favourites at best odds of 2.15, which implies a win probability of roughly 46.5 percent, higher than Olympiakos's implied 29 percent at 3.43.
The best available draw price is 3.8, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 26 percent.
The data shows no match-result selections clearing the value threshold. The highlighted goals-total bet, Over 2.75 at 1.85, actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.13 percent, so it isn't a confirmed value play either.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus takes place Thu ยท 19:00 in the Europa League.
English