Scottish Premiership ยท Wed ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Kilmarnock are the market favourites at 2.5 (around 40% implied), narrowly ahead of St Mirren at 3.0 (around 33%).
The gap between the two sides is slim, reflecting a fixture the market rates as close rather than clear-cut.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 28% chance and keeping all three outcomes plausible.
Our model rates Kilmarnock at about 43% confidence against a 40% market implied probability, producing a value edge of 6.34%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 1.15. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท KIL | X | 2 ยท SM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betsson | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.38 | 2.71 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.46 | 3.38 | 2.71 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Kilmarnock host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership, and the market gives the home side a modest edge. Kilmarnock are priced at 2.5 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of around 40%, while St Mirren at 3.0 with Unibet (SE) sit closer to 33%. The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, roughly a 28% implied chance. Those numbers describe a fixture the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided, with Kilmarnock nudged ahead largely on home advantage in the pricing. Our model leans toward Kilmarnock to win at 2.5, assigning a market-implied confidence of about 43% and flagging a value edge of 6.34% against the current line. That points to a small but genuine overlay on the favourite rather than a standout opportunity, so it is best treated as a measured pick within a sensible staking plan.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Kilmarnock to win at 2.5 with 1xBet, supported by a modest 6.34% value edge. This is a low-conviction favourite pick in a tight-looking match, so the risk is moderate. Stake responsibly and treat it as one option among several.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Dundee United | 2.57 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v St Johnstone | 1.75 | 3.88 | 4.75 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Celtic v Falkirk F.C. | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:00 | Aberdeen v Rangers | 5.00 | 4.12 | 1.72 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v Motherwell | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Hibernian | 3.15 | 3.57 | 2.25 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Celtic v Aberdeen | 1.28 | 6.50 | 10.50 |
| 2 Sept 18:45 | Motherwell v Dundee United | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Kilmarnock to win at odds of 2.50, with a 42% confidence rating.
Kilmarnock are the favourites at 2.5, which implies around a 40% chance. St Mirren are priced at 3.0, roughly 33%.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, implying approximately a 28% probability. All three outcomes remain realistic based on the pricing.
Our model identifies a small value edge of 6.34% on Kilmarnock to win at 2.5, rating them slightly higher at about 43% confidence. No other selections cleared our value threshold.
Kilmarnock vs St Mirren takes place Wed ยท 18:45 in the Scottish Premiership.
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