Scottish Premiership · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Motherwell are priced shortest at 2.2, implying roughly 45% win probability, making them the market's clear favourites over Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock's 3.15 price implies around 32% win probability, leaving a meaningful gap to Motherwell in the market's assessment
The draw at 3.75 implies about 27%, the least likely single outcome according to the odds on offer
The Over 3.0 goals recommendation at 2.01 carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.67%, meaning the model's own estimate trails the market-implied probability for that line
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.15 |
| 0-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 0-2 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 1-3 | 6.3% | 15.97 |
| 2-1 | 5.9% | 17.01 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 1.91. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · KIL | X | 2 · MOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.32 | 3.75 | 2.07 |
| 1xBet | 3.28 | 3.64 | 2.04 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.28 | 3.64 | 2.02 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.04 |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Motherwell head to Rugby Park as the clear market favourites for this Scottish Premiership meeting with Kilmarnock, with Coolbet pricing them at 2.2 for the win. That translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, compared to around 32% for a Kilmarnock victory at 3.15 and about 27% for the draw, which is priced at 3.75. The gap between the two sides' odds points to a moderate but not overwhelming edge for Motherwell on paper. Rather than back a result outright, our model points toward the goals market, flagging Over 3.0 goals at 2.01 with Coolbet as its recommended angle. That price implies just under 50% probability, and the model's own confidence sits at 48%, slightly below that mark, so this is not presented as a strong value play but as a measured, data-based suggestion worth weighing against your own view of the game.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 2.01 reflects a near coin-flip proposition with a small negative edge against the market price, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident lean. Bettors considering it should size stakes sensibly and view it as one data point among several.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Hibernian v Falkirk F.C. | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.07 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Aberdeen v St Mirren | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Dundee FC v Rangers | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.41 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Celtic v Hearts | 1.59 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Motherwell are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.2 compared to 3.15 for Kilmarnock, implying around a 45% win probability versus roughly 32%.
The draw is available at 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies an approximate 27% probability, the lowest of the three match outcomes based on the listed odds.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were flagged above the threshold. The model's recommended bet is Over 3.0 goals at 2.01, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.67%, so it is not a strong edge play.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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