Scottish Premiership · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Celtic's 1.61 price implies a win probability of about 62%, making them clear favourites over Hearts at 5.25 (around 19%)
The draw is priced at 4.6, implying roughly 22%, a notable but secondary possibility behind a home win
The model's Over 3.0 goals selection at 1.79 carries 53% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.88%, meaning the model does not see it as genuinely value-positive
No value picks versus market consensus met the threshold for this fixture, limiting the number of data-backed angles available
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.41 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.86 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CEL | X | 2 · HEA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.58 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.75 | 4.72 |
| Betfair | 1.59 | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.30 | 4.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.56 | 4.30 | 4.95 |
| 888sport | 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Celtic host Hearts at Celtic Park in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Pinnacle's 1.61 on a Celtic win implies a win probability of roughly 62%, while Hearts at 5.25 with Coolbet implies around 19%, and the draw at 4.6 sits near 22%. Those numbers point to a clear home favourite, with Hearts priced as a sizeable underdog. Away from the match result market, our model flags a goals market angle: Over 3.0 goals at 1.79, carrying a 53% implied confidence level from the model itself. Notably, this isn't flagged as a strong value play, since the calculated edge comes in slightly negative. There are no standout value picks against market consensus this time, so this preview leans on reading the raw odds rather than recommending an edge-driven selection with confidence.
Verdict: Celtic are priced as strong favourites, with the draw and an upset both looking secondary according to the odds. The Over 3.0 goals angle has model backing on confidence but shows a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a speculative, higher-goals-line bet rather than a clear-value opportunity. Stake cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Hibernian v Falkirk F.C. | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.07 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Aberdeen v St Mirren | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Motherwell | 3.32 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Dundee FC v Rangers | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.41 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 53% confidence rating.
Celtic are the clear favourites, priced at 1.61 with Pinnacle, which implies a win probability of roughly 62%, well ahead of Hearts at 5.25.
The draw is available at 4.6 with Pinnacle, implying an outcome probability of around 22%.
No standout value picks against market consensus met the threshold for this game. The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.79 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.88% according to the model, so it should be approached with caution rather than as a confirmed value bet.
Celtic vs Hearts takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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