Scottish Premiership · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Aberdeen are priced at 2.02, implying roughly 49.5 percent win probability, making them the clear market favourite over St Mirren.
St Mirren's 4.0 odds imply about 25 percent, while the draw at 3.75 implies close to 27 percent, keeping the draw competitive with the away win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 implies a 56.8 percent break-even threshold against a modelled 54 percent confidence, producing a negative edge of 5.09 percent.
No side of the match-result market currently clears the site's value-edge threshold, meaning no outright pick is flagged as statistically favourable.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.45 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.45 |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren to win | 4.18 | +5.7% | 25% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ABE | X | 2 · SM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.74 | 4.18 |
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.62 | 3.91 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.84 | 3.62 | 3.92 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.83 | 3.55 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aberdeen host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership with the home side clearly favoured by the betting market. Best odds of 2.02 on Aberdeen imply a win probability of roughly 49.5 percent, well ahead of St Mirren's 4.0 price, which points to about 25 percent. The draw sits at 3.75, implying close to 27 percent, keeping that outcome firmly in play statistically. Rather than backing a side to win outright, our model's recommended angle looks at the game's total goals, suggesting Over 2.5 at 1.76 with a modelled confidence of 54 percent. That bet carries a slight negative edge against the market price, so it should be viewed as a considered option rather than a standout value play. No match-result selection currently clears our value threshold, underlining how tightly this fixture is priced across outcomes.
Verdict: The data points to Aberdeen as clear favourites, but the standout angle is the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.76, albeit with a modest negative edge against model expectations. It is a reasonable, moderate-confidence option rather than a strong value bet, and stakes should be sized with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Hibernian v Falkirk F.C. | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.07 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Motherwell | 3.32 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Dundee FC v Rangers | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.41 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Celtic v Hearts | 1.59 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 54% confidence rating.
Aberdeen are the clear market favourites, priced at 2.02, which implies roughly a 49.5 percent chance of winning, compared with St Mirren's 4.0 price implying about 25 percent.
The draw is available at 3.75, which implies an approximate 26.7 percent probability, making it more likely according to the market than a St Mirren win.
No match-result selection currently clears the site's value threshold. The highlighted option is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, though it carries a slight negative edge of about 5.09 percent against the model's 54 percent confidence figure.
Aberdeen vs St Mirren takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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