Scottish Premiership · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Hibernian's 1.67 price implies close to a 60% win probability, making them clear market favourites over Falkirk F.C.
Falkirk's 5.32 odds imply roughly 19% but carry a model fair probability of 19% with a 3.39% edge, flagged as the standout value pick.
The draw at 4.2 implies about 24%, sitting between the two sides' win probabilities and reflecting a competitive if uneven match-up.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 carries 56% implied confidence from the model but shows a slight negative value edge of -2.58%, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than clearly favourable.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.2% | 9.82 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.88 |
| 2-1 | 10.0% | 10.05 |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
| 3-0 | 6.5% | 15.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.96 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +5.8% | 25% | 59 |
| Falkirk F.C. to win | 5.07 | +6.4% | 21% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HIB | X | 2 · FFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.03 | 5.07 |
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.96 | 4.99 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.60 | 3.96 | 5.05 |
| 888sport | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hibernian host Falkirk F.C. in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about who starts as favourite. Hibernian's best price of 1.67 implies a win probability close to 60%, a clear reflection of market confidence in the home side. Falkirk, by contrast, is priced at 5.32, translating to an implied chance of roughly 19%, while the draw sits at 4.2, implying around 24%. These figures add up to just over 100%, typical bookmaker overround rather than a genuine toss-up. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 as its recommended angle, suggesting the goals markets may offer a more balanced opportunity than trying to pick the outright winner in this one-sided looking contest.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, with implied confidence of 56%, though the slightly negative edge means it is not a standout value play. Hibernian are strong market favourites for the result itself, but goals markets may offer a more measured, if still uncertain, betting angle here.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Aberdeen v St Mirren | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Motherwell | 3.32 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Dundee FC v Rangers | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.41 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Celtic v Hearts | 1.59 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 56% confidence rating.
Hibernian are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.67, which implies close to a 60% chance of winning according to the odds.
The draw is available at 4.2, implying an approximate probability of 24% based on current market pricing.
Falkirk's best price of 5.32 corresponds to a fair probability estimate of 19%, giving a modest edge of 3.39% versus the market consensus, though this remains a lower-probability outcome overall.
Hibernian vs Falkirk F.C. takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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