Scottish Premiership · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Rangers are priced at 1.36, implying a win probability near 73-74 percent, making them clear favourites over Dundee FC.
Dundee FC's 8.77 price reflects a market-implied chance of roughly 11 percent, consistent with a significant underdog tag.
The draw at 5.66 carries an implied probability of about 17-18 percent and shows a calculated edge of 4.65 percent against the model's fair value.
The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.91 carries the strongest signal in this preview, with 57 percent model confidence and an 8.84 percent edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 0-2 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 2-1 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 15.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.71. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DF | X | 2 · RAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 7.60 | 5.00 | 1.41 |
| Coolbet | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.37 |
| Pinnacle | 7.48 | 5.05 | 1.38 |
| 1xBet | 7.55 | 4.95 | 1.36 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.60 | 4.95 | 1.35 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.80 | 4.80 | 1.34 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rangers head to Dens Park as commanding favourites against Dundee FC in this Scottish Premiership fixture, and the odds leave little doubt about market expectations. Best prices have Rangers at 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent, while Dundee FC's 8.77 price points to just over 11 percent. The draw sits at 5.66, implying around 17-18 percent. Those numbers paint a picture of a heavily one-sided contest on paper, at least according to the betting market. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, recommending Under 3.25 goals at 1.91, a price it rates with 57 percent confidence and an 8.84 percent value edge. There is also a modest value signal on the draw, priced at 5.66 against a fair probability estimate of 18 percent. Together these angles suggest the most interesting betting opportunities here may lie outside the straightforward match-result line.
Verdict: The data points most clearly to the Under 3.25 goals market, backed by a reasonable edge and majority confidence level, rather than the lopsided match-result market. It is not a certainty, and the draw also shows some value, but neither should be treated as a sure thing. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Hibernian v Falkirk F.C. | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.07 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Aberdeen v St Mirren | 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kilmarnock v Motherwell | 3.32 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Celtic v Hearts | 1.59 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Rangers are strongly favoured by the market, priced at 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent compared to Dundee FC's 8.77 price and around 11 percent implied chance.
The draw is available at 5.66, implying an approximate 17-18 percent chance, and the model flags a 4.65 percent value edge on this price relative to its fair probability estimate.
The clearest value identified is in the goals market, with Under 3.25 goals priced at 1.91 showing an 8.84 percent edge and 57 percent model confidence, alongside a smaller edge noted on the draw.
Dundee FC vs Rangers takes place Sat · 19:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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