Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Internacional are the favourites at 2.3 (about 43% implied), but only moderately so given the away and draw prices.
Atletico Mineiro at 3.37 imply roughly 30%, with the draw priced almost identically at 3.4 (around 29%).
The narrow gap between the away win and the draw suggests the market sees a genuinely balanced contest.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries a market-implied confidence near 54%, but shows a negative value edge of -4.08%, so it is not flagged as a value pick.
Team form
Head-to-head: Internacional v Atletico Mineiro
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Internacional's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro: pre-match preview
This Brasileirao clash between Internacional and Atletico Mineiro sees the home side installed as the market favourite. Internacional are priced at 2.3, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while Atletico Mineiro sit at 3.37, or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is close behind the visitors at 3.4, worth around a 29% chance, so the market clearly regards this as a competitive fixture rather than a one-sided affair. With Inter only a moderate favourite and the away price relatively short, there is little separating the outcomes on paper. Our model does not lean on the match result here; instead it points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, reflecting a market-implied confidence of about 54% that the game stays tight. It is worth noting the calculated value edge on that pick is negative, so this is a read on game profile rather than a clear pricing inefficiency.
Verdict: The model's lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, backed by an implied confidence of around 54% that this stays a low-scoring Brasileirao encounter. Be aware the value edge is negative, meaning the price offers no clear market advantage. Treat it as a moderate-confidence angle and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.85 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85.
Internacional are the favourites at 2.3, an implied probability of roughly 43%. Atletico Mineiro are the outsiders at 3.37, around 30%.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, implying about a 29% chance. That is very close to the Atletico Mineiro win price, underlining a tight market.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually shows a negative edge of -4.08%, so it reflects game profile rather than a pricing advantage.
The tip won — final score 0-0 (+0.85u at flat stakes).