Europa League · Thu · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Ferencváros are priced at 2.01, implying just under 50% win probability, making them the market's clear favourite over Plzeň.
Viktoria Plzeň's 3.75 price implies around 27% probability, while the draw at 3.87 implies close to 26%, showing the away win and draw are similarly rated by the market.
The Over 2.75 goals line at 1.92 carries an implied probability of about 52%, but the model's own edge calculation is negative at -4.0%, indicating no clear pricing advantage.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold, meaning the market consensus and model view are closely aligned on the 1X2 outcome.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FT | X | 2 · VP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.06 | 3.95 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.04 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.94 | 3.79 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.96 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.96 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ferencváros TC host Viktoria Plzeň in a Europa League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best-priced odds of 2.01 on Ferencváros imply a win probability of just under 50%, while Plzeň's 3.75 price points to roughly 27% and the draw at 3.87 sits close behind at around 26%. That spread suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest rather than a coin flip, though the draw remains a live outcome given how tight the away and draw prices are to each other. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Over 2.75 at 1.92 as the featured angle for this game, a price implying just over 52% for that outcome. It is not flagged as a standout value play, but it is the pick worth weighing alongside the win markets when assessing this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.75 goals at 1.92, but with a -4.0% edge this is not a value bet by the model's own measure, just its most notable market read. Ferencváros are favoured to win outright at odds implying near 50%. Stake sizing should reflect this marginal, uncertain edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznań v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 57% confidence rating.
Ferencváros TC are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.01 which implies just under a 50% win probability, compared to Plzeň at 3.75 (around 27%).
The best available draw price is 3.87, implying an approximate 26% probability, only slightly behind Plzeň's implied win chance.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold in this data set. The model's featured pick is Over 2.75 goals at 1.92, though it carries a -4.0% edge rather than a positive one, so it should not be treated as a strong value play.
Ferencváros TC vs Viktoria Plzeň takes place Thu · 19:00 in the Europa League.
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