Europa League ยท Thu ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Bournemouth are priced at 1.24, implying an approximate 80.6 percent win probability, a strong market-side favourite label.
SK Sturm Graz's best price of 15.0 implies only around 6.7 percent, reflecting a substantial gap between the two teams according to the market.
The draw at 6.98 (implied roughly 14.3 percent) sits between the two win probabilities, as expected in a lopsided pricing structure.
The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.93 carries a negative value edge of -4.26 percent versus the model's 50 percent confidence, meaning the price does not currently offer a clear mathematical edge.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BOU | X | 2 ยท SSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.21 | 8.40 | 17.00 |
| Matchbook | 1.21 | 8.20 | 17.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.22 | 7.50 | 14.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.22 | 7.50 | 14.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 7.60 | 13.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.19 | 7.30 | 15.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Bournemouth host SK Sturm Graz in a Europa League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.24 on Bournemouth imply a win probability of roughly 80.6 percent, making the Cherries heavy favourites against opposition priced at 15.0, which the market rates at just under 6.7 percent to win outright. The draw sits at 6.98, translating to an implied chance of about 14.3 percent, a price range typical for a fixture with such a wide gap between the two sides. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle here is a goals total: Over 3.25 goals at 1.93, which carries an implied probability near 51.8 percent against a model confidence of 50 percent. That mismatch is worth understanding before staking, and it is discussed further below alongside the win-market pricing.
Verdict: The match-result market strongly favours Bournemouth, leaving limited value in backing the favourite at short odds. The suggested Over 3.25 goals selection at 1.93 is close to a coin-flip proposition by the model's own estimate, and its negative value edge suggests bettors should treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
Bournemouth are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.24, which implies an approximate 80.6 percent chance of winning according to the odds.
The best available draw price is 6.98, implying roughly a 14.3 percent probability of the match ending level.
No standout value picks against market consensus were identified. The model's recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.93 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.26 percent, so it should not be viewed as a clear-cut value opportunity.
Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz takes place Thu ยท 19:00 in the Europa League.
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