Europa League ยท Thu ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 ยท how we work
Benfica are priced at 1.26, implying a probability near 79 percent, making them heavy favourites over Celtic.
Celtic's 13.0 price implies roughly 8 percent, reflecting a market view of them as considerable outsiders in this tie.
The draw at 6.69 implies about 15 percent, sitting between the two win outcomes as is typical in lopsided matchups.
The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.88 carries a 51 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.04 percent, so it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BEN | X | 2 ยท CEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.28 | 6.80 | 12.50 |
| Betfair | 1.28 | 6.60 | 12.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.33 | 11.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.25 | 6.50 | 12.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.25 | 6.50 | 12.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.25 | 6.30 | 12.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Benfica host Celtic in a Europa League clash where the odds leave little doubt about market expectations. Priced at 1.26 with Nordic Bet, Benfica are rated overwhelming favourites, with the implied probability sitting close to 79 percent. Celtic, at 13.0, are given only around an 8 percent chance by the same layer of pricing, while the draw at 6.69 with 1xBet implies roughly 15 percent. Add those figures together and the market carries a standard overround, reflecting bookmaker margin rather than true probability. Away from the result market, our model highlights the goals total, recommending Under 3.25 goals at 1.88 with Pinnacle. That price corresponds to a market-implied confidence of 51 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative, meaning this is presented as a reasoned angle rather than a mispriced opportunity.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Benfica, but the standout data point is the Under 3.25 goals line at 1.88, offering moderate implied confidence of 51 percent. With a negative value edge of just over 4 percent, this is a considered rather than a high-conviction pick, and stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.33 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1.40 | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | NK Celje v Omonoia FC | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.84 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Torreense v Sunderland | 8.60 | 5.50 | 1.43 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lech Poznaล v Bayer Leverkusen | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.68 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Salzburg v AC Milan | 4.36 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| 15 Oct 16:45 | Lyon v Crystal Palace | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Benfica are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.26 with Nordic Bet, which implies a probability of roughly 79 percent.
The draw is available at 6.69 with 1xBet, implying a probability of around 15 percent.
No clear value picks were flagged above the site's threshold. The recommended angle, Under 3.25 goals at 1.88, actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.04 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-confidence idea rather than a strong value bet.
Benfica vs Celtic takes place Thu ยท 19:00 in the Europa League.
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