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แ แแญแ โฝ Premier League ๐ Sun ยท 15:30
Our tip
Arsenal to win
Odds
1.74
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 61%
AI Value edge 6.43% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Arsenal are strong favourites at 1.72, implying about 58% win probability, with Chelsea a distant 5.4 (around 19%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.04, roughly a 25% implied chance, a fairly standard number for a match with a heavy favourite.
03
Our model rates Chelsea's fair probability at 21% versus their 5.4 price, producing the largest flagged value edge at 15.14%.
04
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.5%, making it a marginal lean rather than a value play.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 47%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 8.46 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.37 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 3-0 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.79 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.10 and 0.78. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to win | 5.65 | +3.4% | 18% | 54 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
ARS Arsenal WWWWW
21 Aug 26 vs Coventry City 3-0
24 May 26 @ Crystal Palace 2-1
18 May 26 vs Burnley 1-0
10 May 26 @ West Ham 1-0
2 May 26 vs Fulham 3-0
CHE Chelsea LWDLL
24 May 26 @ Sunderland 1-2
19 May 26 vs Tottenham 2-1
9 May 26 @ Liverpool 1-1
4 May 26 vs Nottingham 1-3
21 Apr 26 @ Brighton Hove 0-3
Head-to-head: Arsenal v Chelsea
Full H2H history โ W 1 Mar 26
Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
D 30 Nov 25
Chelsea 1-1 ArsenalPremier League
W/D/L shown from Arsenal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท ARS | X | 2 ยท CHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.81 | 5.64 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.71 | 3.75 | 5.55 |
| Betfair | 1.69 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.59 | 5.65 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.63 | 3.85 | 5.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: match preview
This Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Chelsea sees the home side installed as clear favourites, with a best price of 1.72 available at 1xBet. That equates to a market-implied probability of roughly 58%, underlining how strongly bookmakers lean towards Arsenal. Chelsea, by contrast, are a long shot at 5.4, implying about 19% before overround, while the draw sits at 4.04, or around 25%. The gap in prices reflects a match the market expects Arsenal to control. Our model, however, focuses elsewhere: the recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, priced close to a coin flip at 50% implied confidence. Notably, the value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -1.5%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The clearer statistical value flagged by our numbers actually appears in the outsider markets, which we cover in the key factors below.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, essentially a 50/50 call with a small negative edge, so treat it as a low-conviction lean. The market's clearer statistical value sits on Chelsea and the draw. Whichever angle you take, stake responsibly and keep outcomes uncertain.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?+
Our tip is Arsenal to win at odds of 1.74, with a 61% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Chelsea?+
Arsenal are the favourites at a best price of 1.72, which implies roughly a 58% chance. Chelsea are the outsiders at 5.4, around 19%.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is available at 4.04 with 1xBet, implying about a 25% probability. Our model assigns it a fair probability near 26%, giving a modest edge of 6.84%.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model flags the biggest value on Chelsea at 5.4, with an edge of 15.14% against a fair probability of 21%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, by contrast, shows a slightly negative edge of -1.5%.
When does the match kick off?+
Arsenal vs Chelsea takes place Sun ยท 15:30 in the Premier League.