Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Grazer AK (2.56) and WSG Tirol (2.62) are priced almost identically, implying win probabilities of about 39% and 38% respectively, a gap too small to call a clear favourite
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly 29% probability, noticeably lower than either team's win chance but still a live outcome in a tightly matched game
The three prices sum to around 106.6%, showing the standard bookmaker margin built into this market
The model's highlighted Over 2.5 Goals pick at 1.87 carries a market-implied probability near 53%, though the model's own confidence sits at 50% with a value edge of -6.5%, meaning the odds are not clearly in the bettor's favour by this model's measure
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.37 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.09 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.53 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WT | X | 2 · GA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
| Betsson | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.52 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.52 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
WSG Tirol host Grazer AK in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the bookmakers see almost nothing between the two sides. Grazer AK are priced at 2.56 with 1xBet, WSG Tirol slightly longer at 2.62 with 888sport, and the draw sits at 3.4. Converting those prices gives Grazer AK an implied win probability of roughly 39%, WSG Tirol close behind at about 38%, and the draw around 29%, which points to a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite. Away from the match result market, the recommended angle from our model is Over 2.5 goals at 1.87, reflecting a view that this fixture could produce goals at both ends. The pricing structure here suggests bettors should treat this as a coin-flip style match rather than one with a standout winner.
Verdict: The match-result market is essentially a toss-up between WSG Tirol and Grazer AK, with the draw also live. The flagged Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.87 is the only angle highlighted, but its negative value edge suggests it is not a standout opportunity, so this should be approached cautiously and staked with discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 23 Oct 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Austria Wien | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 49% confidence rating.
Grazer AK are the marginal favourites at 2.56, implying about 39% win probability, just ahead of WSG Tirol at 2.62 (around 38%). The gap is small enough that neither side is a strong favourite.
The draw is available at 3.4, which implies roughly a 29% chance according to the market, lower than either team's implied win probability.
No value picks against the match-result consensus were identified. The model does highlight Over 2.5 Goals at 1.87, but with a -6.5% value edge, meaning it is not flagged as strong value by the model's own calculation.
WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK takes place Sat · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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