Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Hartberg are priced at 2.4 to Wolfsberger's 2.7, implying win probabilities of about 42% versus 37%, a narrow gap that points to a closely matched contest
The draw at 3.5 implies roughly 29% probability, making it the least likely single outcome on the board but still a live possibility given how tight the win prices are
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (around 107%), reflecting the standard bookmaker overround built into these odds
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.68 carries 56% implied confidence from the model, but its value edge is negative at -6.47%, meaning it is not presented as a clear-cut value opportunity
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.19 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.69 |
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HAR | X | 2 · WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.68 |
| Betsson | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.62 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.62 |
| 888sport | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hartberg host Wolfsberger AC in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market sees relatively little separating the two sides, though Hartberg do carry the shorter price. At 2.4 for a home win against 2.7 for Wolfsberger, the odds imply Hartberg are favoured at roughly 42% to Wolfsberger's 37%, with the draw priced at 3.5, implying about 29%. That is a fairly tight spread across all three outcomes, suggesting the bookmakers view this as a competitive, open fixture rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to goals, flagging Over 2.5 at 1.68 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 56%. Notably, this pick shows a negative value edge of -6.47%, meaning it is not flagged as a genuine market inefficiency, just the most notable signal from the data provided.
Verdict: The match-result market is close, with Hartberg marginal favourites over Wolfsberger AC and the draw priced as the outsider. The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, yet its own figures show a negative value edge, so this should be treated as a moderate-confidence lean rather than a strong recommendation. Bet selectively and manage stakes responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 23 Oct 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Austria Wien | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Grazer AK | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 44% confidence rating.
Hartberg are the marginal market favourites at odds of 2.4, implying a win probability of around 42%, compared to 2.7 (about 37%) for Wolfsberger AC.
The draw is available at 3.5, which implies a probability of roughly 29%, making it the least backed outcome of the three according to the odds.
The model's recommended pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with 56% implied confidence, but it carries a negative value edge of -6.47%, so it is not flagged as a strong value bet based on the data provided.
Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC takes place Sat · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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