Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
LASK's 1.34 price implies close to a 75 percent chance of victory, reflecting a clear market favourite in this Bundesliga fixture.
Austria Lustenau's 8.05 odds put their implied win probability at around 12 percent, a sizeable gap to LASK.
The draw is priced at 5.3, implying roughly 19 percent, suggesting bookmakers see a draw as more likely than an Austria Lustenau win but still a distant third outcome.
The Over 3.5 goals pick carries a -6.67 percent value edge against the model's fair-price estimate, meaning the market price is currently less favourable than the model's own calculation would suggest.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AL | X | 2 · LAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
| 888sport | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.60 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
| Suprabets | 6.70 | 4.60 | 1.31 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.75 | 5.00 | 1.27 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Saturday's Austrian Bundesliga clash between Austria Lustenau and LASK is priced as a heavily one-sided affair by the bookmakers. LASK are best backed at 1.34, which implies a win probability of roughly 75 percent, making them strong favourites on paper. Austria Lustenau, at 8.05, are given only about a 12 percent chance, while the draw at 5.3 sits around 19 percent. Those numbers point to a match the market expects LASK to control, though football odds always carry some margin and uncertainty. Away from the result market, our model's flagged selection is Over 3.5 goals at 2.1, tied to a 44 percent implied confidence level. Notably, that pick carries a negative value edge of -6.67 percent versus the model's own fair-price calculation, so it should be treated as a data point rather than a strong recommendation. As always, stake sizes should reflect that uncertainty rather than the shape of the odds alone.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 reflects a 44 percent confidence level from the model, but its negative value edge means the price does not currently favour bettors by the model's own metric. This is a moderate-risk angle rather than a clear-cut opportunity, and it should be weighed alongside the lopsided match-result odds before staking.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 44% confidence rating.
LASK are the clear favourites, priced at 1.34, which implies roughly a 75 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is available at 5.3, which implies an approximate 19 percent probability.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified above the site's threshold; the model's recommended bet is instead an Over 3.5 goals wager at 2.1, though it currently shows a negative value edge of -6.67 percent.
Austria Lustenau vs LASK takes place Sat · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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