Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Wolfsberger AC are the nominal favourites at 2.34, implying roughly 43 percent win probability, ahead of WSG Tirol's 37 percent from their 2.70 price.
The draw at 3.70 implies about 27 percent, keeping the three-way market competitive rather than lopsided.
The combined implied probabilities sit above 100 percent, reflecting normal bookmaker overround rather than a genuine edge in the match-result market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.57 carries a negative value edge of -6.69 percent, meaning the market price is currently less generous than the model's own estimate would justify.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.66 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 8.98 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.67 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WA | X | 2 · WT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Tirol in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the bookmakers lean toward the home side without making them a heavy banker. Best prices have Wolfsberger at 2.34, which implies a win probability of roughly 43 percent, while WSG Tirol at 2.70 points to about 37 percent. The draw, priced at 3.70, carries an implied chance of around 27 percent, keeping this fixture fairly open on paper. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model looks past the win-draw-win line and flags the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.57 as the recommended angle, built on an implied probability near 64 percent against a model confidence of 59 percent. That gap is worth understanding before staking, and it is detailed further below alongside the rest of the pricing picture for this Austrian top-flight meeting.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.57 is the only angle the model surfaces for this game, but its own numbers show a negative edge, so this is not presented as a strong-value play. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 59% confidence rating.
Wolfsberger AC are the market favourites at odds of 2.34, implying roughly a 43 percent chance of victory, compared with about 37 percent for WSG Tirol at 2.70.
The draw is available at 3.70, which implies an approximate 27 percent probability, making it the least likely outcome of the three but not far behind WSG Tirol's price.
No clear value pick was flagged against the match-result market. The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.57, though it actually shows a negative edge of -6.69 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk option rather than a confirmed value bet.
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Tirol takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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