Austrian Bundesliga · Fri · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are closely bunched, with Altach at 2.4, Austria Wien at 2.7 and the draw at 3.4, reflecting a fixture the market views as close to a coin flip.
Implied probabilities put Altach favourites at roughly 41.7 percent, ahead of Austria Wien's 37 percent and a draw chance near 29.4 percent.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.95 carries an implied probability of about 51 percent against a model confidence of 49 percent, giving a value edge of -4.54 percent.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, so there are currently no flagged value picks on the 1X2 market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.06 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.06 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.33 and 1.16. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RA | X | 2 · AW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.36 | 2.78 |
| Betsson | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| 888sport | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rheindorf Altach host Austria Wien in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market sees very little daylight between the two sides. Best odds have Altach as narrow favourites at 2.4, which implies a win probability of roughly 41.7 percent, while Austria Wien are priced at 2.7, translating to about 37 percent. The draw at 3.4 carries an implied chance near 29.4 percent, underlining how tightly matched the bookmakers consider this fixture. Rather than leaning on the outright result, our model points toward the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-assumed probability of around 51 percent, though the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 49 percent, producing a small negative value edge rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The outright market is too tight to single out a confident side, with Altach only marginally favoured over Austria Wien. The model's Over 2.5 goals tip at 1.95 is the headline suggestion, though its negative value edge means it is not a statistically clear-cut edge, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Grazer AK | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 49% confidence rating.
Rheindorf Altach are the slight favourites at best odds of 2.4, implying roughly a 41.7 percent win probability, just ahead of Austria Wien at 2.7 (about 37 percent).
The draw is available at 3.4, which implies an approximate 29.4 percent chance according to the market.
No match-result selection currently clears the value threshold. The flagged recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.95, though it shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.54 percent rather than a clear edge.
Rheindorf Altach vs Austria Wien takes place Fri · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
English