Danish Superliga · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Midtjylland are priced as favourites at 2.18, implying roughly a 46 percent chance of victory, against Viborg's 2.91 (about 34 percent).
The draw at 3.74 implies close to 27 percent, keeping the result market fairly competitive despite the favourite tag.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent (around 107 percent), reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these odds.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.55 carries a 60 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a -6.6 percent value edge, meaning it is not flagged as a genuine market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.37 and 1.61. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VF | X | 2 · FM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.88 | 2.28 |
| Betsson | 2.88 | 3.65 | 2.32 |
| GTbets | 2.94 | 3.73 | 2.21 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Viborg FF host FC Midtjylland in a Danish Superliga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. At odds of 2.18, Midtjylland implies a win probability of roughly 46 percent, well ahead of Viborg's 2.91 price, which points to about 34 percent, with the draw at 3.74 rounding out the picture at around 27 percent. Those numbers suggest bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest without making Midtjylland an overwhelming favourite. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle here is goals: the model's recommended selection is Over 2.5 goals at 1.55, carrying an implied confidence of 60 percent. Notably, this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -6.6 percent against the market, meaning the price does not currently offer a statistical advantage over the bookmaker's own assessment. No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold this week.
Verdict: The data points to Midtjylland as moderate favourites, with the draw and Viborg both live possibilities given the price spread. The Over 2.5 goals angle at 1.55 is the only highlighted selection, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a plausible outcome rather than a clear market mispricing. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | AC Horsens v Randers FC | 2.85 | 3.62 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.90 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | SonderjyskE v Silkeborg IF | 2.50 | 3.85 | 2.70 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | OB Odense BK v Brondby IF | 3.05 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 59% confidence rating.
FC Midtjylland are priced as favourites at 2.18, implying roughly a 46 percent win probability, compared with Viborg FF at 2.91 (about 34 percent).
The draw is available at 3.74, which implies a probability of around 27 percent.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold. The model does flag Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with 60 percent implied confidence, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -6.6 percent, so it is not a confirmed market inefficiency.
Viborg FF vs FC Midtjylland takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Danish Superliga.
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